According to a recent estimate from Western Union Business Solutions, Asian nations will account for over 80% of growth in the international student market by 2025.
The corporate money transfers company’s latest higher education perspective research takes a deep dive into market predictions about what the post-pandemic future would look like. WU Business Solutions’ head of market research, Nawaz Ali, detailed the report’s generational perspective in a PIE Webinar on February 17.
“Based on conversations we’ve been having, universities post-pandemic are looking to plan forward after what has been the biggest economic crisis we’ve seen in two generations,” he said.
Asia is the region with the biggest increase, according to the data. The expected market-supporting nations, China and India, are represented, but the emergence of Vietnam and Nepal as new players, maybe even surpassing Germany, is “surprising.”
“All those countries featuring that we wouldn’t deal with day to day…I want to understand more about those push factors,” said Dino Leo, head of education, Europe, at WU Business Solutions.
The report’s other major results are mostly based on the ‘big four’ countries: According to projections, the number of Indian students studying in Canada would grow by roughly 40,000 by 2025, compared to 2019. Canada’s specific immigration processes, which make it simpler for Indian students, are projected to boost the country’s market share of Indian students, according to Ali.
Despite the consequences of Brexit, the survey estimates that 85,000 additional foreign students from the EU will study in the UK. There has been a lot of discussion and debate about how Brexit would affect student mobility in Europe. In this, UK numbers are predicted to rise; the prestige of UK universities draws students, and the EU’s closeness to the UK makes it simpler to travel there and back, thus foreign students are likely to flock to the UK in greater numbers.
Nepal’s outreach will have a big influence in Australia, where WU forecasts it will overtake Malaysia and Vietnam to become one of the country’s top three inbound markets for student mobility. Because of a 58.6 per cent growth in Nepalese families with earnings beyond the popularly recognized $35K threshold, Nepalese global outbound students are predicted to grow at a 3.1 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2025.
Nepalese students have a significant proclivity to study abroad, with a 21.4 per cent outward mobility rate in 2019. Geographic closeness, quality casual jobs, and graduate opportunities are expected to attract 42 per cent of those students to Australia by 2025. It comes after the country’s optimistic growth before 2021. From 9.1% in 2015 to 22.8 per cent in 2021, Nepal’s outbound student mobility rate has more than doubled.
The country’s education industry has been severely impacted by the country’s greatest earthquake in 80 years. Kazakhstan, which the research projects will become an “influential market in coming years,” expanding from just under 80,000 to over 100,000 by 2025, is another significant nation where outbound mobility is likely to develop.
Despite these growing nations, China will remain the market’s major player in terms of outward mobility. Given the report’s assertion of growing confidence, Chen stated that border reopening was still required to restore full trust. According to the report’s inbound growth estimates, the United States would “remain the dominating inbound market,” acquiring additional 165,000 students by 2025. By the middle of the decade, Australia, Canada, and the United States are expected to restore their supremacy.
Work rights will play a role in revitalization, according to Rajiv Sharma, managing director of education, medical, and NGO for North America at WU Business Solutions, but they might also be a double-edged sword in particular markets.
“I think the intel around the immigration policies that president Biden will be deploying to redeploy those Islamic country-based students to come into the US is valid but the other challenge is the King Abdullah Scholarship program,” he explained.
Many of those folks return to the area or to Saudi Arabia, which means you lose the potential for them to contribute to the country’s economy as functional contributors. More and more state-owned corporations in China, as well as some of the country’s top private-sector firms, are seeking employees who completed their first degree at an overseas institution. They want to see what kind of experiences they may obtain throughout their college years.
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